Demand Signals: Smarter Forecasting, Faster Fulfillment and the Future of Wholesale

February 24, 2026 • 7 minute read
Author: Phyllis Jackson, Senior Manager, US Marketing, UPS

Key Points

• 76% of wholesalers say they face increasingly complex demand patterns.¹
• Flexible fulfillment and agile inventory management practices help offset shrinking margins and volatile demand.
• Strong supply chain partnerships help wholesalers stay resilient, adapt quickly and strengthen retailer trust.

The Challenge of Identifying Demand Signals

Wholesale can feel like a constant balancing act. One moment, you’re chasing demand signals that shift by the hour. The next, you’re staring down shrinking margins, managing delivery windows and retailers who want the impossible: Less inventory, faster fulfillment and zero mistakes. It’s a high-wire walk without a safety net.

It’s a juggling act that Charles Cawthorn, Strategic Lead at UPS, knows well. He’s watched customer expectations shift almost overnight and technology redefine what “fast enough” really means. Here, he explains how forecasting, flexibility and foresight are shaping the future of wholesale.

Forecasting used to be based purely on past sales. How has it evolved?

“Today, it’s predictive and powered by real-time data. We’ve all made advancements thanks to technology, especially with AI. Wholesalers now track sales orders, inventory, customer sentiment and even current events all at once. Instead of marketing, sales, operations and finance working in silos, technology has helped integrate these teams. The goal is to anticipate what’s next instead of reacting.”

What does flexible fulfillment look like in Practice?

“It’s really about responsiveness. Do you have warehouse space? Can you quickly adjust your order management systems (OMS) for new products? Are your retail relationships balanced across channels? It all comes down to how fast you can adapt.”

What are some of the complexities that wholesalers face with demand planning today?

“Nearly 80% of wholesalers report managing complex demand patterns.¹ Margins are shrinking across the board. Wholesalers are carrying the burden of tighter inventory models since retailers don’t want to hold excess stock. That’s a challenge, but also an opportunity. Wholesalers that manage inventory better and act as true logistics partners can deepen retailer relationships and stand out from competition.”

Real-time visibility can cut lead times, so how does that help change operations?

“Wholesalers can hand off to carriers faster, replenish inventory with certainty and give retailers the flexibility to set delivery windows. It reduces uncertainty and builds trust because retailers don’t just take wholesalers at their word. They can see progress themselves.”

How should wholesalers respond to unexpected demand spikes?

“If you have contingency plans and real-time data, you can focus on execution: staffing up, adjusting logistics and fulfilling quickly. But if you’re scrambling to build flexibility in the moment, you’ve already missed your window. You have to prepare before the spike hits.”

How does UPS help wholesalers stay nimble when things don’t go as planned?

“We know the problems wholesalers face. Our engineers solve many of the same problems. We use programs like ORION for smarter routing, leveraging Agentic AI for an adaptive solution that prioritizes efficiency.”

What’s the tangible benefit of AI and other tech tools?

“Half of supply chain organizations planned major investments in AI last year.² In fact, last year, UPS^® Intelligent Logistics — our suite of AI-powered tools, as well as innovative technologies in our Smart Package Smart Facilities — helped us keep performance levels strong during the holiday season, even when global supply chains were strained by port congestion. Using predictive models, we rerouted shipments away from those high-demand bottlenecks and into alternative hubs.”

What about beyond peak season?

“Right. It’s not just about peak season. Our engineers use the same AI automation we recommend to customers. ORION — that’s On-Road Integrated Optimization and Navigation — keeps delivery routes smart and dynamic, predicting and avoiding delays from weather or traffic. And wholesalers can tap into all that through customizable dashboards that integrate their systems, giving them the same visibility and agility. So, these aren’t abstract tools. They can be applied every day to protect margins, reduce uncertainty and strengthen trust across the supply chain.”

Speaking of the supply chain, what role do partnerships play when pivoting during disruptions?

“Partnerships go beyond transactions. Shared visibility, trust and agility are what make wholesalers resilient. Agility is one of those words we may hear too much, but it’s just a fact that everyone needs to be agile. Instead of turning to transactional, less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers, shifting more volume to long-term partners like UPS gives wholesalers greater flexibility before they hit a breaking point.”

Looking ahead, what’s the next big shift in demand planning?

“The future is scenario-based forecasting. We’ll be able to plan for multiple outcomes, not just one. At the same time, e-commerce adoption is going to keep accelerating, and wholesalers that still have limited digital infrastructure will need to catch up. AI will continue to unfold in industry-specific ways. But the real hurdle isn’t the technology. It’s about integrating it into daily operations. The tech is ready today, but there’s a learning curve for wholesalers to make it part of their traditional workflow.”

If you could give wholesalers one piece of advice, what would it be?

“Forecasting is only half the battle. Success really comes down to execution, and that’s powered by automation, AI and strong logistics partners. Within that, you don’t want to silo demand planning from supply chain agility. Integration is where you win.”

¹ “2024 State of the Supply Chain Industry,” Blue Ridge, accessed August 13, 2025.
² “68 Supply Chain Statistics to Know in 2025,” Tradeverifyd, June 9, 2025.

Individual results and options will vary. UPS makes no promises of any specific outcome in this document but instead provides only example outcomes based on certain UPS customer experiences.